It sometimes takes a very long time to find out how to properly or most optimally play a setup.
Here's an example you probably wouldn't expect: https://epicmafia.com/setup/58204 Behold the most statistically balanced setup of all time, Voltron Doesn't Like It (VDLI). Read the setup comments starting from the oldest ones. It's pretty interesting reading how people were approaching the setup from the beginning. It took almost a year for people to realize that PRs claiming PR on Day 1 is the best strategy. There were people arguing for BP to claim Day 1 and for Oracle to hide, then for Oracle to claim Day 1, and some other ideas, all before finding the right idea.
Another example is a setup that, if you add up the total number of plays it had across all four times it was deleted and remade over the years, would easily place top 10 all time even today--in fact, a variant of it is the 10th most played setup right now. https://epicmafia.com/setup/561586 Armed and Dangerous (A&D)--the setup which many other variants such as "Armed and Redacted" and "this setup is bad and should not be played" were made after. The best strategy is to lynch Day 1 (avoid the chance of GS being hooked/the gun going elsewhere/Hooker or Lawyer living to see Night 1), but it never happened. For some inexplicable reason, nobody ever bothered to try consistently playing the setup that way, and because the setup was played improperly for over 5 years, it eventually became too scumsided for competitive play, and the variants took its place. It wasn't even tried, even though statistically it's more optimal. I got blue in the face trying to convince people to try it.
Some setups such as GMoney509's Pernicuous Ambiguity https://epicmafia.com/setup/1174003 are not as scumsided as they appear. This is probably a true 55/56% mafia setup, which is fine. It is a difficult setup, combining multiple lesser used mechanics such as Janitor, Governor, Crier, and Mason mechanics as well as debate over optimal strategy given multiple situations.
The issue is when you need to get 200 plays playing it with people who are normally accustomed to Guns & Hookers, JFK, and FP. In gold hearts, more difficult setups such as these ones are obviously more likely to become more scumsided in percentages than they actually are.
Now the nice thing is that the Round Mod is able to approve any setup for competitive play even if it doesn't have 200 plays to it's name. Therefore this effect is lessened, however when testing a setup it's usually a good idea to have people play it who really know how. Having a custom lobby you can invite people to play it works, but getting people to go there is difficult.
You may have to make a setup more townsided than you would like for it to survive the 200 play barrier, but then when it reaches gold hearts, it runs the risk of becoming far more townsided due to the change in player skill.
I'm going to attempt a balance on Pernicuous Ambiguity shortly and test it with the free time I have today, hopefully.
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For those who've wondered what the greatest record for a trophy winner in a round ever was: This was the greatest run in site history-- 33-5-1 (86.8% WR of completed games)--by DeezNuts007 (brownpimp007). It ended in 8 days (but got paused for 1 day on top of that). I was around for it, and I remember logging on every day, looking at the leaderboard, and being like "what the f*ck...."
The other thing to point out here: CBA and Sweet Dreams are both quick coinflips. People clearly don't like trying and would much rather just try and get carried or be lucky to win a round, given these setups comprise over 95% of what's been played this round
Fun useless fact: If the round numbers remained consistent from the end of Competitive Lobby and the start of custom lobbies, assuming we're starting from the beginning of the round number system back in 2010, the current round number would be Round 274.
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