deleteddeletedover 8 years ago
he was a lot more fun when he was having a mental breakdown in this thread
There is an EXTREMELY popular opinion that n1 vig is a noob/idiotic move.
Firstly, this is based on the actual truth that all noobs are going to n1 as vig and that (due to this popular peer pressured opinion) most experienced players will kill no one n1 as vig. The issue is that just because all noobs would do it and most experienced players wouldn't doesn't, in itself, prove that the majority who no-kill are in the right.
I will now prove why the minority of experienced players who do n1 as vig are not idiotic gamblers but wise gamblers: There are 10 players overall. 6 of them are ones you want to kill n1 (traitors+fool). Note that it is actually a 66.67% shot you are taking and not a 60% shot because you know you yourself are not one of the 6 and therefore it'a a 6/9 shot in the dark and not a 6/10).
The argument that you can n1 stalker and unrank the game (which is a 11.11% chance) or that you can kill the masoned player and/or the same as stalker both which hurt town is just not how you should analyse a gamble. You don't think "oh no this can go wrong so therefore it's unwise" you should think which is more likely; it going right or wrong and use this combined with the extent of profit in deciding to go for it or not. In reality killing off a mason isn't too bad n1 unless the stalker kills the other one too. The only person you could kill n1 who really will impact your chances of winning negatively by a huge percentage is the tracker as you now have heavily nerfed the information with which the masons can operate AROUND the possibility of masoning the stalker.
So, in reality, the stalker and the tracker are the only game-hampering kills you could make n1 and since you can still win easily-enough with tracker dead (especially with the skill level of most reverse maf players being hella low) you are only really needing to fear killing the stalker n1 or the same as the stalker kills which all in all is a 22.22% chance of failure in your shot.
So, taking ALL ANGLES of thinking into your frame of mind, n1ing as the vig is pretty much either helping you or not mattering too much 77.88% of the time.
