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Jan 2.0

Doconmeabout 10 years ago

https://epicmafia.com/game/5351345/review

Let's discuss strategy since we have to discuss this nearly every game.

Above game is a perfect example.

My opinion:

If one cop has an inno (Cop A) on day 1 and another cop has a guilty (Cop B), you lynch between Cop B and the guilty. IF AND ONLY IF you believe Cop A is real cop then lynch cop B and if you believe cop B is real cop then lynch the guilty. This is because the guilty could possibly be lawyer and getting the lawyer is better than getting the janitor. This is not a guilty test. If you think cop B is fake feel free to lynch him.

"what if mafia guessed the miller" Assuming villager got janned.... If the mafia fakes a guilty. They have a 1/6 chance of getting cop, 1/6 orc, 1/6 doc, 2/6 blue, 1/6 miller. Only a 1/6 chance of guessing the miller.

So I if I am a blue and I get tricked by mafia cop who faked guilty on a non-pr, I still have a 2/3 chance of getting bailed out by the guilty flipping blue instead of miller. Again, this is assuming I believe the mafia cop. If I don't believe the mafia cop I vote him. On the flip side, if it's real cop that got the guilty AND I believe him, there's a basically 50/50 chance that his guilty is lawyer. Why not get possible lawyer over janitor?

In the above referenced game, real cop got guilty on the miller. Janitor was lynched day 1. No matter how hard boop the miller towntold, she was STILL lynched day 2. The ML was still gone from the town. So in this case, since all townies believed Roo day 1 anyway, they should have no issues lynching Boop day 1 for possible lawyer. And if she flipped miller at the end of day 1, it's fine the ML is gone (like what happened anyway) and you lynch jan day 2. So from a blue's perspective it was literally the same thing since they believed Roo but it was more advantageous to lynch Boop day 1 because:

1) What if boop is lawyer 2) What if roo tricked everyone and faked guilty? There is a 2/3 chance we get bailed out and boop flips blue. In that case, real cop still lives.

Again, it's not a blind guilty test. If town had believed scansquantum then they should have lynched Roo 100%.

Once this strat is understood, maf will stop fake guiltying because real cop won't even be in the lynch pool. Regardless, mafia only has 1/6 chance of guilying the miller.

The ONLY way this turns into a loss is IF the majority of the town gets fooled by fake cop AND fake cop guessed miller. Chances of that are slim. On the flip side, town get bailed out 2/3 times even if they believe fake cop.

Gerryabout 10 years ago
you only guilty test in scenarios where :

1) Cop is uncc'd.

2.) Orc is dead and is orc on blue revealed.

/close thread. don't listen to OP, it's suboptimal.
PatrykSzczescieabout 10 years ago
https://epicmafia.com/game/5342063/review
PatrykSzczescieabout 10 years ago
By the way all the time I see inno and guilty on the same person, town decides to lynch the cop instead of guilty test.
Giga13about 10 years agoedited
The situation in the OP is interesting, but also more risky than lynching in Cops on Day 1 imo; you're basically wasting the ML to determine which Cop is real when lynching Day 1 in Cops does that anyway. Also if the guilty is miller (1/2 chance if it's the real Cop's guilty), then the ML is gone for the rest of the game (however the Cop will probably live longer if the Doc doesn't die)
PatrykSzczescieabout 10 years ago
brownpimp007
Dzanek you are talking about specific situations. In the first game you linked, it so happened that cop got a guilty day 2. That is why JM wasn't lynched. If cop had inno, JM would be lynched. It would have worked the same way if you lynched JM because you believed icemynipz, he flips miller, next day lynch tang because he got guiltied and he was confirmed lawyer, and then lynch janitor the following day. It ends up being essentially the same except if JM did happen to be lawyer then lynching him day 1 would get cop a clean report n2. Maf doesn't always have to fish a pr. They can pretend to be blue/miller. And some people are good at towntelling as mafia. So you should still base your lynch off of your read in cops.

In the 2nd game you are talking about, I would suggest lynching between guilties based on cop reads. That game ended up being harder for you because cop got lynched day 1. Imagine if JM the villager gets lynched day 1, your cop still lives. Imagine if you get lynched day 1, they would actually know you were miller and your cop still lives. Quite surprising that they didn't lynch you the next day for being cops guilty but occurrences like that are few and far between with towns like these.
About the first: If they lynchd JM s he only guilty, they could do this D3 when cop had inno report on clear, ml the miller was the safest towards autowin. But they didn't do this.

About the second: Well, we both hard softed pr and didn't want to get lynched ourselves. If JM got lynched in this case then mafia wouldn't have to kill for doctor just kill towntelling people, lawyer towntell even more and cop is powerless when I am put as cop's guilty on lylo. I felt safer with JM123 than cop which I pushed.
Tatamiabout 10 years ago
tl;dr of viability of strat:

Equal to traditional if cop is real, if cop is fake you trade 1/6 chance of lynching blue (over cop) for a 1/12 autoloss with every other scenario equal to traditional.

Instinct is that guilty testing is not worth it as the autoloss likely outweighs the benefit of having cop live over a blue (despite being 2x as likely)
Anthonyabout 10 years ago
jerk
Keep cheating with and getting cucked by online women bro.
dang!
1
Iversonabout 10 years agoedited
jerk
Tatami
I accidentally deleted the townpost oh lord.

It's basically equivalent assuming the cop is real.

a) 1/4 chance of cop into miller lynch
b) 1/4 chance of cop into lawyer/jan lynch
c) 1/4 chance of miller into jan lynch
d) 1/4 chance of lawyer into jan lynch

a/b happen in traditional, c is slightly worse for town, d is slightly better. Really question is how worthwhile it is for scum to random guilty.
Did you try not letting your girl be screwed by a muscular black man?
tbh those are my three favorite parts of the day I don't want to stop it
thecolonelabout 10 years ago
Anthony
jerk
Anthony
my favorite part about lynching the guilty is when they're miller and you lynch town and a potential clear. especially when the mafia had a 1/6 chance of guiltying miller, which then goes to a 1/5 chance if they claim after the cop and then they proceed to collect autowin
My favorite part about lynching the guilty is that nu male fucc babies like yourself cry and then touch that dink to some black dude in gettin it on in your bedroom.

Lynching guilty is 100% best. End of.
is this your truth, facts, and science strategy to counter-act the simple-minded and oversimplified socialist "everyone's equal" bulls­hit?
/!\cuck alert/!\
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jerkabout 10 years ago
Anthony
jerk
Anthony
my favorite part about lynching the guilty is when they're miller and you lynch town and a potential clear. especially when the mafia had a 1/6 chance of guiltying miller, which then goes to a 1/5 chance if they claim after the cop and then they proceed to collect autowin
My favorite part about lynching the guilty is that nu male fucc babies like yourself cry and then touch that dink to some black dude in gettin it on in your bedroom.

Lynching guilty is 100% best. End of.
is this your truth, facts, and science strategy to counter-act the simple-minded and oversimplified socialist "everyone's equal" bulls­hit?
Keep cheating with and getting cucked by online women bro.
deleteddeletedabout 10 years ago
shut up SJW
Anthonyabout 10 years ago
jerk
Anthony
my favorite part about lynching the guilty is when they're miller and you lynch town and a potential clear. especially when the mafia had a 1/6 chance of guiltying miller, which then goes to a 1/5 chance if they claim after the cop and then they proceed to collect autowin
My favorite part about lynching the guilty is that nu male fucc babies like yourself cry and then touch that dink to some black dude in gettin it on in your bedroom.

Lynching guilty is 100% best. End of.
is this your truth, facts, and science strategy to counter-act the simple-minded and oversimplified socialist "everyone's equal" bulls­hit?
deleteddeletedabout 10 years agoedited
Jerk "only coal burners or cucks dont lynch the guilty"
jerkabout 10 years agoedited
Anthony
my favorite part about lynching the guilty is when they're miller and you lynch town and a potential clear. especially when the mafia had a 1/6 chance of guiltying miller, which then goes to a 1/5 chance if they claim after the cop and then they proceed to collect autowin
My favorite part about lynching the guilty is that nu male fucc babies like yourself cry and then touch that dink to some black dude in gettin it on in your bedroom.

Lynching guilty is 100% best. End of.
1
deleteddeletedabout 10 years ago
much thanks to jerk
Anthonyabout 10 years ago
my favorite part about lynching the guilty is when they're miller and you lynch town and a potential clear. especially when the mafia had a 1/6 chance of guiltying miller, which then goes to a 1/5 chance if they claim after the cop and then they proceed to collect autowin
1
thecolonelabout 10 years ago
i named this account "jerk" in dedication to all the politically correct retards and SJWs who call me "jerk" because i prefer truth, facts, and science over their simple-minded and oversimplified socialist "everyone's equal" . if you are one of those aforementioned SJWs or retards, you can kindly right off.
4
jerkabout 10 years agoedited
Tatami
I accidentally deleted the townpost oh lord.

It's basically equivalent assuming the cop is real.

a) 1/4 chance of cop into miller lynch
b) 1/4 chance of cop into lawyer/jan lynch
c) 1/4 chance of miller into jan lynch
d) 1/4 chance of lawyer into jan lynch

a/b happen in traditional, c is slightly worse for town, d is slightly better. Really question is how worthwhile it is for scum to random guilty.
Did you try not letting your girl be screwed by a muscular black man?
deleteddeletedabout 10 years ago
please continue posting your Jan 2.0 strategies
deleteddeletedabout 10 years ago
Thanks jerk, thank you
Tatamiabout 10 years ago
I accidentally deleted the townpost oh lord.

It's basically equivalent assuming the cop is real.

a) 1/4 chance of cop into miller lynch
b) 1/4 chance of cop into lawyer/jan lynch
c) 1/4 chance of miller into jan lynch
d) 1/4 chance of lawyer into jan lynch

a/b happen in traditional, c is slightly worse for town, d is slightly better. Really question is how worthwhile it is for scum to random guilty.
jerkabout 10 years ago
0 reason to lynch in cops with a guilty on d1. Anyone who says otherwise is a cuck.
Tatamiabout 10 years agoedited
My math really sucks today, deleting the last scum post too.

Possible outcomes revised w/ mafia randomy guiltying and town guiltytesting:

a) 1/12 chance of scum autowin
b) 1/3 chance of outing PRs in exchange for jan
c) 1/6 chance of cop lynch (Assuming guiltying cop is an autolynch)
d) 1/4 chance of jan lynched and town given clear (1/2 chance of blue/miller guilty x 1/2 chance of jan lynch)
e) 1/6 chance of blue lynch in exchange for jan

b) c) d) are all the same as in traditional strat.

a) is infinitely better as scum than in traditional but only 1/12 chance
e) is a lot worse for scum but still not the worst possible.

Which is more valuable in a/e is really up in the air and requires a lot more calculating out for chance of town win post cop lynch vs. post blue lynch.
Anthonyabout 10 years ago
you should always use your day 1 lynch on someone who you scumread versus potential lawyer or potential cop. if you scumread cop a but townread cop b's guilty why bother removing them from the game when you could lynch the cop you scumread
1
Anthonyabout 10 years ago
just saying, you have a potential TvT d1 lynch if you use this strategy, between the real cop and a potential clear, unless you're going to argue that once lawyer is lynched mafia would no law. but it doesn't matter because jan 2.0 is a sh­it show anyway and the playerbase can't handle any sort of critical thinking that it requires
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